Originally published on LinkedIn, August 4, 2026
Absa’s talent raid on Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking has been extraordinary. I do not recall anything quite so aggressive in the history of Corporate South Africa. And if people make the difference, it makes sense, doesn’t it?
I am rugby-mad, and that extends to schoolboy level. Fifteen years ago the top schoolboy side in KZN was Glenwood: a de facto academy, top coaches, aggressive recruitment. By contrast, DHS was a whipping boy, with much wailing and gnashing of teeth over how a once-great institution had sunk so low. Some DHS old boys got involved, poached Glenwood’s coaches, copied the recruitment playbook, and the roles reversed. Is this the future for Absa?
Kenny has been canny. By tapping known A-team CIB talent he buys himself time: wins on deals that would otherwise have passed Absa by, and a few large deals move the needle. At first. The problem for Absa (and everyone else), is that Standard Bank’s CIB franchise rests on a now-entrenched position in market-making across Africa in foreign exchange, bonds and financing. The system/infrastructure is the moat. They may have lost good people, but the engine keeps spinning.
Coronation has flagged scepticism about Absa’s SA retail franchise. I concur, and would add Business Banking to that bucket. Both have a South African scale problem. Even so, they are both much bigger than Pan African business. SA retail headline earnings are 3x those of African retail and business banking combined (and Business 1.5x), so even if the new head of Personal and Private Banking (ex-M-Pesa), does well in a Pan-African context, it does not move the needle. It moves backwards if South Africa is not solved. If I wanted to win in these SA segments through appointments, I would have looked at who is actually winning there. It is neither Standard Bank nor M-Pesa.
Which brings me back to the rugby. In schoolboy sport the coaches and recruits are the system. Take them and you have taken the thing itself. In corporate and investment banking, the balance sheet, the primary dealerships, market clearing and the client book all stay exactly where they were. Absa may have bought some bankers but Standard Bank has kept the machine.
None of which makes Absa a bad equity investment. If Plan A works, you bought a good company at a great price, which is roughly why Coronation has been buying it despite the scepticism. If it does not, someone may yet walk across the road, have a lekker conversation with an old colleague, and end up paying an acquisition premium. Two bites at the cherry.
Leave a Reply